Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 12: For Indiana, judgment week is here

Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.

It’s possible that at this time next week, the Indiana Football Hoosiers will be the No. 1 team in the land.

No, really. If the Hoosiers win at Ohio State, they’d be one of three (or fewer) undefeated teams in the country, and Oregon will have just a one-point win over the Buckeyes at home. Sure, Indiana’s overall schedule isn’t strong, but it would arguably have the best win of anyone in the country.

But what if Indiana loses? The Hoosiers are 11.5-point underdogs according to BetMGM, after all. They haven’t beaten Ohio State since 1988. The Buckeyes have more talent. Then what will we do with the Hoosiers, who would likely finish 11-1 without any notable victories? How should their College Football Playoff case compare to all those two-loss SEC teams with top-10 wins?

I don’t have a good answer or a strong feeling. It’s a tough call. Indiana has played the conference schedule it was given and largely dominated it. The Hoosiers are up to No. 5 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 134. But that’ll change next week.

With a close loss to Ohio State, the Hoosiers would have a good case — essentially Penn State’s case — of no great wins and a respectable performance in their one big game. If the Hoosiers get blown out, SEC media at large will begin the campaign to keep Indiana out of the field. And they will have a case to make.

This debut season of the 12-team CFP has been almost the worst-case scenario for the selection committee. Alabama and Georgia aren’t the dominant forces they have been, and intraconference schedules are so uneven thanks to oversized leagues. Everyone has flaws. Comparing a program with recent national championships to Indiana is an impossible task. But it’s what the committee is tasked with doing.

It’s what I’m tasked with doing as well, since I volunteered to do the first all-FBS rankings for The Athletic back in 2017. It’s never been this difficult to do the top 15 before. It also might be the new norm after a round of realignment that left most conferences without divisions.

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Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.

1-10

Tennessee slips to No. 10 after its loss to Georgia, and BYU falls out of the top 10 after losing to Kansas. Everything else stays the same. Georgia has to stay behind Alabama and Ole Miss because of its losses to both. The Rebels beat Georgia by more than Alabama did, but they have a much worse loss, to Kentucky. They also lost to LSU, and Alabama whipped the Tigers in Baton Rouge.

Now, Notre Dame fans, I can already feel your anger. Let me start by saying don’t worry too much. If you beat Army this week, you’ll jump the SEC teams in my rankings into CFP first-round, home-game territory, where the polls have you. Yes, the Irish have a resume similar to the group of Texas, Penn State and Indiana. They have the best win of that group. They also have the really bad loss to Northern Illinois, and the quality of their wins against Louisville and Navy took hits this weekend. I couldn’t have the Irish jump Georgia after the Bulldogs beat Tennessee, but if they take care of business against Army, they will be up much higher. And if Texas in two weeks loses to the Texas A&M team that Notre Dame beat, the Longhorns will take a big tumble — perhaps even out of the Playoff field.

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11-25

BYU’s win at SMU keeps it from falling further after losing to Kansas. We’ve reached the point where it’s basically impossible for the ACC or Big 12 to get multiple bids. BYU’s margin for error is gone, and its trip to Arizona State this week keeps the Big 12 race wide open. Boise State fell behind 14-0 at San Jose State but rallied for a comfortable win. The Broncos lost a top-25 win in Washington State, which lost to New Mexico, but made it up when UNLV entered this tier. SMU and Boise State are incredibly close and could be flipped, which right now would be the difference between the No. 4 seed and the No. 12 seed in my projected bracket. If both win out, SMU has the opportunity to post better wins.

South Carolina moves up to No. 17 after a last-minute win against Missouri. Had the Gamecocks closed out Alabama earlier in the year, they’d be squarely in the CFP picture. Arizona State is up to No. 20 after beating Kansas State. The Sun Devils are 8-2, with one of those losses coming without quarterback Sam Leavitt. K-State only falls to No. 21 because of its early-season win against No. 22 Tulane, and its win against Colorado keeps looking better.

Tulane, Iowa State and UNLV are back into the top 25. Although UNLV is 8-2, the Rebels don’t control their path to the Mountain West championship game because Colorado State is undefeated in Mountain West play.

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26-50

No. 26 LSU has wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina and losses to Florida and USC. Make it make sense. How do you rank that? Washington State slips to No. 27 after a loss to New Mexico. Louisville’s collapse against two-win Stanford sees the Cardinals fall to No. 32, but an earlier win against Georgia Tech stops the slide there.

Baylor was down to No. 90 in these rankings at one point but is now up to No. 35 after four consecutive wins, enough for coach Dave Aranda to keep his job. The Bears leap Texas Tech thanks to a head-to-head win a few weeks ago. Florida climbs to No. 43 after its win against LSU, while USC moves up to No. 45 after beating Nebraska. Navy falls again, down to No. 46 after a 35-0 loss to Tulane, and Louisiana is down to No. 47 after losing to South Alabama. North Carolina is back in the top 50 after beating Wake Forest but remains behind James Madison due to their head-to-head result.

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51-75

West Virginia, Virginia and Boston College fall out of the top 50 after losses, while Wisconsin moves down just one to No. 57 after taking No. 1 Oregon down to the wire. Kansas jumps to No. 58 after taking down undefeated BYU. The Jayhawks are 4-6 with five one-score losses and get Colorado next.

Arizona ended a five-game losing streak with a stunning 27-3 win against Houston to move up to No. 68. Western Kentucky was upset by Louisiana Tech at home and drops to No. 72.

No. 75 Colorado State is turning the corner under Jay Norvell, up to 7-3 and undefeated in Mountain West play, but the schedule has been favorable, avoiding Boise State and UNLV.

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76-100

Jacksonville State has won seven consecutive games since an 0-3 start and moves up to No. 78, with a big game against Sam Houston next. Texas State beat Southern Miss to reach bowl eligibility for the second year in a row and the second time ever.

The top half of the MAC had a strong showing — Miami (Ohio), Ohio, Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo and Northern Illinois were the midweek winners — with those first three all 5-1 in league play. Liberty needed overtime to beat UMass and drops to No. 88.

East Carolina is 3-0 under interim head coach Blake Harrell, most recently beating Tulsa to move up to No. 89. Oregon State falls to No. 92 after a 28-0 loss to a struggling Air Force. UTSA has moved into the top 100 after putting up 681 yards on North Texas to get back to .500. New Mexico is 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall’s first season after beating Wazzu, the program’s first win against a ranked team since 2003, and moves up to No. 99.

101-134

No. 104 Florida State and No. 107 Purdue fall due to weekend wins by Arkansas State, South Florida and South Alabama, plus Purdue’s blowout loss to Penn State. Louisiana-Monroe has lost four consecutive games since a 5-1 start and is now down to No. 105. Louisiana Tech moves up to No. 110 after beating Western Kentucky, while Troy is up to No. 112 after consecutive wins against Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Utah State, Air Force and Temple also all picked up wins.

No. 134 Kent State remains the lone winless team this season, with only two opportunities left.

The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)