Reassessing AFC contenders: Bills the best? How dangerous are the Steelers? Sando’s Pick Six

Sunday in the NFL was all about AFC contenders bullying each other for position in the conference as the season’s stretch run awaits.

The Buffalo Bills showed calm and efficiency while handing Kansas City its first defeat after nine consecutive Chiefs victories to open the season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers proved they still have the formula for containing MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Their 18-16 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, enabled partly by two more angst-inducing Justin Tucker missed field goals, lifted the Steelers to 8-2 and third in the AFC.

Finally, the Los Angeles Chargers blew a 21-point lead, then survived to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, marking them as a team in transition away from its disappointing past, willed into relevance by new coach Jim Harbaugh.

The Pick Six column leads this week with an updated look at the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Chargers — the five AFC teams with seven or more victories and the best postseason prospects. The full Pick Six menu:

• AFC contenders recalibrated
• The Bears’ post-Waldron bump
• Seahawks’ Macdonald asserting?
• Jon Gruden is no Gregg Williams
• Fangio, Kingsbury and Moore
• Two-minute drill: 49ers’ window

1. What a day atop the AFC. Let’s run through the key takeaways.

Let’s begin in Orchard Park, N.Y., where the Bills’ 30-21 victory over the Chiefs marked their fourth consecutive regular-season victory over Kansas City.

• Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen got it right afterward, downplaying the victory because he and everyone else know the postseason is what will matter ultimately, and the Chiefs hold the big edge there.

Buffalo still must prove it can operate in those high-leverage situations under the pressure of an elimination game in January. This November tuneup was a step in that direction.

Case in point No. 1: Trailing 14-13, the Bills ran the final 2:44 off the clock before halftime with a 12-play drive, making a 33-yard field goal as the half expired. Getting points without leaving Patrick Mahomes any time for a rebuttal drive was textbook game management and execution — exactly what Buffalo must do to win these games.

Case in point No. 2: Leading 23-21 midway through the fourth quarter, the Bills put together another 12-play drive, this one ending with Allen’s ridiculous 26-yard scramble touchdown on fourth-and-2.

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!

📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/HjhmBiLbcr

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 18, 2024

“I’m picking Josh Allen if we have a draft now to start a franchise,” an NFL exec texted after this Bills victory.

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Mahomes will have something to say about that in the playoffs, but this Bills team, with its improved run game and calmer feel about it, might be better by then. That’s because linebacker Matt Milano, Buffalo’s most important player on defense, will be returning from injury soon.

• Chiefs: The Chiefs were going to lose at some point, and there was a great chance that time would come Sunday. The Bills were favored.

The path to a third consecutive Super Bowl victory is still there. My prescription for the Chiefs: adding a healthy Isiah Pacheco to the offensive backfield next week while continuing to develop rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who for the second time in three weeks failed to get his second foot down inbounds on what should have been a rather routine big play.

This was otherwise an excellent game for Worthy. He scored on a 10-yard catch-and-run and held onto the ball after absorbing a big hit following a 31-yard reception.

WORTHY SPEEDS IN 🏃‍♂️ @XavierWorthy pic.twitter.com/l2TicCUNkY

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 17, 2024

The offense is still evolving. Travis Kelce is averaging 8.2 yards per catch, which is down from 10.6 last season, which was down from 12.2 in each of the two years before that, which was down from 13.5 in 2020. The trend for him is unmistakable now. DeAndre Hopkins’ addition at the trade deadline fills some of that void. With Pacheco returning and Worthy emerging, look for coach Andy Reid to hone this team’s offensive identity over the final seven weeks.

“It will look just like last year, right?” an opposing coach said. “Where they run the ball, then they run scramble drill, then they get some key receptions, and if you play too much one-high safety, they throw it up and someone catches it for 35 yards. Remember when (Marquez) Valdes-Scantling dropped all those balls and then made the catches to win the games? That is what they do.”

• Steelers: The Steelers’ 8-2 start is tied for their second-best under coach Mike Tomlin. They own a league-high five victories over teams that currently have winning records (Detroit and Kansas City are second with four apiece, while Baltimore and Tampa Bay are next with three).

“I still think they have to run the ball a little better, but the match of the offensive coordinator and the quarterback are made in heaven, as long as Russell (Wilson) doesn’t decide he has to start cooking all the time,” an exec said.

The Steelers are better in the passing game with Wilson behind center than they were when Justin Fields was in the lineup, but Sunday proved there’s room for both in the offense.

Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith worked Fields into the game for 8- and 13-yard runs on two second-and-long plays after halftime.

Could we see Fields in the red zone next?

Wilson has completed only 7 of 24 passes (29 percent) in the red zone with Pittsburgh. The interception he threw on third-and-goal from the Baltimore 5 could have cost the Steelers the game. Fields has completed 13 of 19 passes (68 percent) without any interceptions in the red zone. These are relatively small samples, but the rushing threat Fields adds to the offense could help in that area of the field, especially if Wilson struggles there.

It’s something to consider as the Steelers, led by a defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play, prove they belong among contenders.

“I’m not saying they are going to advance to the Super Bowl,” an exec said of the Steelers, “but can they advance a round or two? Absolutely, especially if their defense is healthy. I have so much more confidence in their scheme on offense now compared to in the past.”

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• Ravens: Lamar Jackson ranked No. 1 on the QB Betrayal Index entering Week 10 because his MVP-caliber production had overcome the Ravens’ poor play on defense and special teams during a 7-3 start.

Against Pittsburgh, it was the Jackson-led offense and those troubled special teams that betrayed a solid effort from Baltimore’s embattled defense.

It’s premature to say formerly all-world kicker Justin Tucker is finished, but he’s definitely slumping, and unless there’s an unreported injury or some other explanation, that is troubling for a Ravens team that realistically needs two of three phases to be solid for the team to deliver on its Super Bowl potential.

The chart above puts into perspective Tucker’s issues this season. The blue bars represent the EPA added through 11 games each season on kicks Tucker made. The red bars show the EPA lost by kicks he has missed. His current season resembles his 2015 season, which Tucker followed with a career year in 2016.

The Ravens cannot take much solace in the thought that perhaps Tucker will bounce back next season. They needed him to be better Sunday, when he missed from 47 and 50 yards in a critical game the Ravens lost by two points. They will need him to be better in the playoffs.

• Chargers: Are the Chargers truly contenders? I see them as a team in the process — not quite there, but closer than they’ve been in years, and headed in the right direction under a coach who knows how to get them there.

They are 7-3, and if their 27-6 lead over the Bengals had not turned into a 34-27 fire drill complete with two missed Cincinnati field goal tries when the score was tied in the final eight minutes, we might be using exclamation points instead of question marks.

Harbaugh has improbably replicated with the Chargers much of what he accomplished in his first 10 games with the San Francisco 49ers in 2011. The table below lays out the similarities, which also include the manner in which Harbaugh has breathed confidence into the highly drafted quarterbacks he coached in both places.

Those 2011 49ers beat New Orleans in the divisional round, a game that validated the confidence Harbaugh had shown in Alex Smith, whose four total touchdowns in that game proved, finally, that Smith could win in the playoffs on the strength of an elite performance. That 49ers team lost at home to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

It’s too early to know how far these Chargers might advance. They still must play Kansas City and Baltimore, plus an improved Denver team. In the meantime, we trust the Harbaugh process.

2. The Chicago Bears played their first game after firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replacing him with Thomas Brown. All was not lost, even though the Bears lost.

The Bears lost to the Packers (again), and if that’s all that matters to you, skip ahead. But how could it be all that matters to a Bears fan in the context of this season and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ career?

Chicago changed coordinators and played one of its best offensive games of the season, complete with a two-minute drive to the would-be winning field goal try (it was blocked, of course).

The table below shows the Bears’ offensive production Sunday ranking among the team’s top four performances in 10 games this season for points, yards, first downs, points per drive, EPA, EPA per play, success rate and third-down conversion rate.

We can question why the Bears, with 35 seconds left and one timeout in their possession, did not run one more play to gain a few more yards before kicking for the win from 46 yards. The coordinator change could have worked against the Bears in this situation, given the coordination that goes on between coaches in these situations.

Over the past decade, kickers had made 7 of 8 tries from 45 to 50 yards at Soldier Field in November. Weather conditions were favorable Sunday.

Those were extraneous details on a day when Chicago’s offense made the most of its season-worst average starting field position (own 20.6-yard line) and nearly overcame the Bears’ worst statistical game of the season on defense (-12.6 EPA).

The Bears coaching staff was fired up after the team’s go-ahead touchdown shortly before the half! pic.twitter.com/7QUuHfUqFj

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 17, 2024

Williams set season highs for designed rushes (four), scrambles (five) and combined rushes/scrambles (nine). He scrambled for 16 yards on third-and-8 and for 13 yards on third-and-5. Three of four designed rushes combined for 5.3 EPA.

Brown had Williams under center on early downs 36 percent of the time, a season high and twice the Bears’ rate for the season. He schemed easy completions to D.J. Moore, who caught all seven targets on throws traveling less than a yard past the line of scrimmage on average. Moore set a season high with 56 yards after the catch, including two receptions with 15-plus YAC, double Moore’s previous season total.

Taking the game clock down from 2:59 to 0:00 on the final drive was another plus, highlighted by Williams’ back-shoulder throw to rookie Rome Odunze for a 21-yard gain on fourth-and-3.

None of this was guaranteed. New play callers are usually stepping into bad situations.

While with Carolina in 2023, Brown replaced then-Panthers coach Frank Reich for nine games.

As the table above shows, Carolina’s production when its then-rookie No. 1 draft choice quarterback, Bryce Young, was in the starting lineup wasn’t any better with Brown calling plays than it was with Reich.

That situation was possibly futile. This one in Chicago is more favorable. Minnesota’s defense should present a tougher test next week.

3. A tumultuous Seattle Seahawks bye week produced a signature victory for new coach Mike Macdonald against the San Francisco 49ers. Did it also hint at a new vision for style of play as Macdonald asserts himself?

The Seahawks cut their starting middle linebacker and processed their starting center’s retirement during their recently completed bye week. Then, they defeated the San Francisco 49ers for the first time since 2021 after six consecutive defeats (by an average of two touchdowns) in the series. The 20-17 victory featured an 11-play, 80-yard drive to the winning touchdown in the final 2:38, with Geno Smith rushing for 29 of the final 37 yards.

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This was a signature victory for first-year Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald in an up-and-down initial season. His defense tackled better at the linebacker level, a huge point of emphasis punctuated by Tyrel Dodson’s surprise release. His defense also held 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to 5.7 yards per attempt, the second-lowest figure for Purdy in 37 total career starts. This was the first time since 2019 that Seattle held the 49ers below 20 points.

There was also a subtle shift away from the shotgun formation, including on running back rushing plays. Did this reflect Macdonald asserting some influence over an offense that, through formation and play calling, has been perhaps too strongly oriented toward the pass?

The table above shows the shift after filtering out the final two minutes of halves, when teams are frequently in pass mode or running down the clock.

The pivot toward more run-friendly formations Sunday did not steer first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb toward the running game, however. The Seahawks’ 58 percent pass rate on early downs outside the final two minutes of halves Sunday mirrored the rate during the pass-happy previous four games heading into the Week 10 bye. Kenneth Walker III finished the San Francisco game with only 14 carries even though Seattle never trailed by more than four points.

Might Macdonald, as a defensive-minded coach who came up under John Harbaugh in Baltimore and spent two years with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, want more carries for his featured back?

The table above shows offensive tendencies for the Seahawks on early downs under all of their offensive coordinators since 2010. Seattle ranks second on the Cook Index this season, with only Cincinnati passing more frequently on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before the clock and score differential exert more influence. That will be one area to watch as Seattle finds its way under its new coach.

4. Jon Gruden’s hiring by Barstool Sports has unleashed a less-filtered, more entertaining version of the exiled former coach. He’s no Gregg Williams, and here’s why that matters.

The version of Gruden fans are getting to see in the R-rated Barstool Sports clips like the one below is closer to the version I knew while traveling with “Monday Night Football” and reporting from the “Gruden’s Quarterback Camp” tapings from 2014 into 2019, when we both worked for ESPN. His love for the game and knowledge of it, his irreverence and his storytelling make him a unique character in the game.

Analytical guys…
pic.twitter.com/RxJRO3lbNb

— Jon Gruden (@BarstoolGruden) November 15, 2024

If you liked Gruden before, you’ll probably love him now.

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What if you are NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, and you did not like Gruden before? This is where things get interesting, because for as much as Gruden would love to become a head coach again, this Barstool incarnation of him shatters any notion Gruden would ever repent his way back into the league.

Williams’ experience is instructive.

The league suspended Williams more than a decade ago for running the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program rewarding illegal hits, at a time when the NFL was facing concussion lawsuits and was under fire on the player safety front. Williams got back into the league after apologizing profusely, cooperating with the NFL’s investigation and pledging to “focus my energies on serving as an advocate for both player safety and sportsmanship.”

Gruden has not been suspended, but he resigned as coach of the Las Vegas Raiders under pressure following the 2021 release of racist, homophobic and misogynistic emails, at a time when the league was under fire on the diversity front and about to require all 32 teams to implement DEI programs. Instead of cooperating with the NFL and pledging to advocate for diversity, which would have mirrored Williams’ approach with player safety, Gruden sued the league and Goodell, accusing them of selectively leaking emails to ruin his career (including emails mocking Goodell).

4th & 1 and the Chargers ran 14 Blast to perfection for the touchdown pic.twitter.com/ENo0RUhvdw

— Jon Gruden (@BarstoolGruden) November 18, 2024

“Gregg revived his career because he repented and did community service for Goodell,” a veteran coach said. “If the league waited to get Gruden on the emails (as Gruden has alleged and the league has denied) because they thought he was a thorn in their side by running his mouth, Gruden is reprising what contributed to his demise.”

5. Tale of two play callers: Vic Fangio’s defenses tend to improve, while Kliff Kingsbury’s have headed in the opposite direction. Oh, and let’s not forget about Kellen Moore.

The Philadelphia Eagles held the Washington Commanders at or below season lows for points, first downs, EPA and EPA per play during a 26-18 victory Thursday night. The game highlighted important potential ramifications:

• Fangio vs. Kingsbury: This game bolstered perceptions that the Eagles’ defense is getting better while the Commanders’ offense could be hitting a wall, and that both trends could reflect the coordinators leading each unit.

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury were key additions for both teams in the offseason. Kingsbury’s offense set a record pace from the start of the season before slowing as quarterback Jayden Daniels dealt with injured ribs and the schedule delivered tougher defensive opponents. Fangio’s defense has gained traction more recently as rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have hit stride.

The chart above illustrates EPA per game for Fangio and Kingsbury over the course of a season for every season they’ve been NFL play callers since 2000 (19 seasons for Fangio, five seasons for Kingsbury). The diminishing late-season returns for Kingsbury reflect his experience with the Arizona Cardinals from 2019 to 2022. Finishing strong this season could help change the narrative for Kingsbury while enhancing his chances of becoming a head coach again.

• Barkley’s brilliance: Quarterback production is typically what launches offensive coordinators to head-coaching opportunities, but as one NFL team exec said of Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, “He is going to get (offensive coordinator) Kellen Moore a job.”

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had a rough game Thursday night, but it didn’t matter. Philly won with its Fangio-coordinated defense and its Barkley-powered offense.

Moore, in his first season with Philadelphia, is leaning on the run more than he did in past coordinator stops with the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys.

The table above shows Moore passing less frequently across three situations.

The 49 percent pass rate on the Cook Index ranks 21st and is below the 51 percent league average on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score and clock exert greater influence on tendencies.

The Eagles’ pass rate across all downs when the score was tied is 46 percent. That ranks 30th.

Philadelphia has passed just 30 percent of the time on early downs when tied or leading, excluding the final four minutes of regulation, when leading teams prioritize using the clock to a greater extent. That ranks 31st. The rate for Moore in these situations was much higher previously.

• Sirianni’s status: The Eagles lost five of their final six games last season to finish 11-6, then got blown out by Tampa Bay in the playoffs. The current team faces a roughly average remaining schedule (.485) and seems to have a stable formula for winning with its defense and run game.

Coach Nick Sirianni’s 42-19 record (.689) is tied with Sean McVay and John Harbaugh for the third-best through 61 games among coaches hired since 2000. Jim Harbaugh (43-17-1, .713) and Matt LaFleur (43-18, .705) are ahead of Sirianni on that list. Some coaches high on the list did not maintain their early pace, from Mike Martz to Mike Smith to Mike Sherman, Chuck Pagano and Mike Vrabel. But it’s a good spot from which to work, for sure.

6. Two-minute drill: Is the 49ers’ Super Bowl window shrinking?

The supposed Super Bowl loser’s curse hasn’t been so bad for most runners-up recently. Perhaps it applies only to the 49ers.

The 2020 49ers followed the previous season’s Super Bowl defeat with a 6-10 season marked by injuries to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and pass rusher Nick Bosa. The current 49ers, who missed running back Christian McCaffrey until recently and played most of the second half Sunday without Bosa, have a 5-5 record since their Super Bowl defeat last season.

The table above shows the season-after fates for the last 10 Super Bowl losers.

The 49ers remain only one game behind 6-4 Arizona in the NFC West race, so nothing has been decided yet. But The Athletic’s model has downgraded their chances of reaching the playoffs from 42 percent before Sunday to 23 percent afterward.

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The special teams units have become unreliable, which could reflect diminished depth. Injuries have slowed or sidelined core players: Bosa, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Trent Williams, etc. Can this team rally to make another Super Bowl run, this year or next?

• Broncos breakthrough: Teams hiring coaches with Super Bowl victories on their resume do not always know whether they’re getting the most all-in version of the legacy coach. Sean Payton using a first-round pick on Bo Nix, who was not a consensus top draft prospect, put pressure on the Broncos’ second-year coach to make the selection succeed, especially after the Russell Wilson saga last season.

Are we seeing what it looks like when a top coach is supremely motivated to help his hand-picked quarterback succeed?

Denver’s 38-6 victory over Atlanta was more than just the bounce-back performance the Broncos needed after their crushing defeat at Kansas City on the last-second blocked field goal last week. This game also marked the fourth time this season Nix finished with two or more touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating of at least 115. Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott and Wilson are the only rookies since 2000 to do that four times in a season. None did it five times. Nix still has six more regular-season games to play.

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That’s a good sign for a franchise that has searched desperately for a quarterback since Peyton Manning’s retirement following the 2015 season.

The Broncos’ performance against the Falcons marked their best for EPA per play (0.31) in 142 games since Manning retired, per TruMedia. The 38 points on offense tied for the most Denver has scored in the post-Manning era.

The Broncos won’t be winning the AFC West this season, but they should be honorary NFC South champs. Payton’s Broncos went 4-0 against his old division with a plus-88 point differential. Denver is 2-5 with a minus-36 differential against all other opponents this season.

• Richardson’s return: Anthony Richardson completing all four passes for 64 yards and the winning touchdown in the final minutes against the New York Jets was exactly what he needed in his return after two weeks on the bench. He completed 20 of 30 passes for the highest single-game completion percentage of his career when attempting more than 12 passes. He did it while averaging 10.5 air yards per attempt. His passes, rushes and scrambles totaled 11.7 EPA, by far a single-game high for him.

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• Raiders’ new OC: The Raiders fell 31-19 at Miami in Scott Turner’s first game as offensive coordinator after Luke Getsy’s firing. Las Vegas finished with positive EPA on offense (+5.9) for the first time in 10 games this season, but with the defense turning in its worst statistical showing of the season (-23.2), the Raiders did not threaten Miami. This was only the second game all season in which Las Vegas never led (vs. Carolina in Week 3 was somehow the other).

The following table comes to mind when I think of the Raiders losing to a team with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and multiple game-breaking backs.

What would you expect after systematically downgrading at key skill positions over multiple seasons?

• Rizzi’s special powers?: The New Orleans Saints are 2-0 with an incredible +15.9 EPA on special teams (excluding two-point tries) since special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi became interim coach following Dennis Allen’s firing. The two victories, 20-17 over Atlanta last week and 35-14 over Cleveland on Sunday, marked the first time since 2002 that the Saints finished consecutive games with at least +6.0 EPA on special teams in each. No NFL team since at least 2000 has strung together more than four such games consecutively.

The key for New Orleans? Five missed field goal tries by the Saints’ opponents, including one that was blocked. It’s unlikely Rizzi as head coach has suddenly unlocked the key to making opponents miss field goal tries, so this sort of streak is not sustainable. The Browns and Falcons have missed five of six tries against the Saints over the past two games, creating 14.6 EPA for the Saints in the process.

At the risk of oversimplifying things after New Orleans beat Cleveland in a game Taysom Hill dominated with touchdown runs of 10, 33 and 75 yards, consider the Saints’ QB splits this season. They are 4-4 and averaging 27.1 offensive points per game when Derek Carr starts at quarterback. They are 0-3 and averaging 12.0 points per game on offense in the games Carr does not start. Third-down play has been especially strong with Carr.

• An endorsement for Maye: New England’s Drake Maye completed 30 of 40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams. It wasn’t enough to overcome Matthew Stafford’s four-touchdown masterpiece as Los Angeles prevailed, 28-22. But it was enough to impress former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner, the Hall of Famer. Warner called this the third-best quarterback performance he’s seen from a rookie this season.

The game that #DrakeMaye played today was the 3rd best rookie QB performance I have seen all year (the other 2 were by #JaydenDaniels)!!! Saw the field, made the throws, anticipated, threw it away when needed to & made some off schedule plays when nothing was there!! #Impressive

— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) November 18, 2024

• Lions’ yardage fallout: Detroit’s 675 yards against Jacksonville were the sixth-most in an NFL game and the most allowed by the Jaguars, per Pro Football Reference. The 675-170 yardage differential (+475) was also the sixth-largest in league history and, more notably, the largest since 1979, let alone the salary-cap era, which dates to 1993. The last time a game produced a yardage differential close to this large was when Dallas outgained the Giants 640-172 late last season.

Surely there will be major ramifications in Jacksonville with the 2-9 Jaguars entering their bye week.

• Belichick to Jaguars?: NBC’s Mike Florio suggested Jacksonville could keep general manager Trent Baalke and pair him with Bill Belichick, as the two worked together with the New York Jets in the late 1990s.

Mike Florio reports on Football Night in America that Jaguars GM Trent Baalke could keep his job into next season… and be joined “as part of a package deal” in Jacksonville by Bill Belichick as the new head coach. #NFL pic.twitter.com/qTeYx5pa0O

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 18, 2024

I’ve thought Jacksonville would be an ideal spot for Mike Vrabel, who could bring needed toughness and identity to the Jaguars, plus a working knowledge of the AFC South from his days coaching the Tennessee Titans. Belichick could bring some of those things to Jacksonville as well.

• Jets lose again: There might not be anything left to say.

(Photo of Josh Allen, left, and Dawson Knox: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)

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