Roki Sasaki’s addition further separates the Dodgers from rest of the league: Law

Roki Sasaki did what everyone expected him to do all along — he picked the Los Angeles Dodgers. The defending World Series champs just added the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award and one of the best pitchers in the world, at least when he’s healthy. They won the World Series with just three functioning starting pitchers, and right now, they have six.

Sasaki dominated NPB hitters in the last two years when he was able to pitch, making 33 starts and throwing 202 innings across 2023 and 2024. He’s been up to 102 mph with his four-seamer with some running action to it, and he pairs it with an out-pitch splitter that grades out as a 70 or an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), with very little spin and some heavy, late tumble to it.

Some of his splitters have horizontal movement as well, and it looks like he can alter the shape depending on the hitter. He also has a 90- to 92-mph slider that’s more of an average pitch, serving as a different look from the split or fastball but without a very tight break and with low spin rates. New teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 90 innings in 2024 and his pitching was worth 1.7 rWAR/2.8 fWAR to the Dodgers; I’d expect Sasaki to be worth at least that much in an equivalent innings total, especially since most MLB hitters have never seen him or that splitter before.

Sasaki peaked at 129 innings in 2022, making 20 starts, and spent time on the injured list in the last two years. The 2023 injury was to an oblique muscle, while in 2024 the injury was described as “right arm discomfort.” His velocity was down in parts of 2024, which I’m sure was related to whatever was ailing him, but it’s a concern when any pitcher who throws this hard misses time with arm problems.

The Dodgers have indicated before this signing that they’re likely going to use a six-man rotation, in large part motivated by the return of Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher, and that could also help them manage Sasaki’s workload. If there’s something worse going on in his arm, or if the discomfort is just a harbinger of future injury, there probably isn’t that much they can do to stop it — it’s the risk they have to assume to try to get the 3 or so WAR he’ll produce if he throws 120 innings.

The Dodgers were already the best team in the league on paper, so this addition is more a form of insurance for their rotation as if they decided there is no way they’re going to stand by while their starters dwindle to just three by the time the playoffs roll around. It increases the gap, again just on paper, between them and the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, and probably directly hurts the Padres since they were one of the clubs rumored to be interested in Sasaki.

The Toronto Blue Jays ended up bridesmaids yet again, unfortunately, and their loss is larger than Los Angeles’ gain. Sasaki would have changed so much about the franchise, making them better this year, of course, but also ending a stretch where they seem to always come in second on big signings — including Ohtani a year ago. Sasaki wouldn’t have made them instant contenders, but he would have made them better, now and for the next several years.

(Photo: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)