Scientists sweat on warning system for lethal heatwaves
An early warning system for lethal heatwaves will be able to predict excess deaths months ahead of time, allowing authorities to properly plan for devastating events.
That’s according to climate scientists developing the technology, which uses machine learning to develop predictions using high-level climate and mortality data.
University of NSW Professor Katrin Meissner, Oxford University Professor Louise Slater and Australian National University Professor Nerilie Abram are building the warning system together.
“This project seeks to produce the first global forecasts of excess mortality associated with lethal humidity weeks – and even months – ahead of time,” Prof Meissner said.
The aim is to create a public portal anyone, anywhere in the world will be able to use.
“The advantages are clear, we can plan accordingly for these increasingly devastating events, but we can no longer say we had no idea they were coming,” she said.
It’s among 10 new projects sharing in $6 million of funding from the Minderoo Foundation, founded by Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest of mining company Fortescue Metals Group and Nicola Forrest.
For the first time, the impact of humidity on women’s health and livelihoods will be put under the microscope as part of a separate study of how extreme conditions impact hundreds of women in south Asia.
Interventions such as cool roofs and cash relief when it is too hot to work will also be tracked as part of the Community Heat Adaptation and Treatment Strategies study, led by Harvard University’s Dr Satchit Balsari and Dr Caroline Buckee.
“Most studies on lethal humidity have been performed on young, male populations such as military personnel and athletes, or on select outdoor workers for short durations,” Dr Balsari said.
“This study is conducted in the actual lived environments (of women) comprising a range of occupations in the informal economy, from street vendors to salt-pan workers.”
Grant recipients were revealed at an event at the United Nations Headquarters in New York launching the Lethal Humidity Global Council, which focuses on the impacts of humidity to human survival including on health, food and productivity.
Dr Forrest hoped the funding would allow leaders in the field to drive action to reduce reliance on burning fossil fuels, which he described as “only solution” to stopping the impacts of climate change from escalating further.
“Of all the dangerous impacts of the climate crisis, humid heatwaves are one of the nearest dangers we face, according to major scientific consensus,” he said.
“Rising humidity and heat already poses a danger to human life (and) the impacts will worsen and become more widespread across the globe as temperatures rise.”
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