Stock market next week: Outlook for October 28
Wall Street is about to get hit with the newsiest week yet ahead of the election — just as the stock market has started to falter. Investors will contend with earnings results from five of the Magnificent Seven companies next week. Alphabet’s results are set to be released Tuesday. Microsoft and Meta Platforms post their reports Wednesday. Results from Amazon and Apple come out Thursday. On top of that, there are important data releases on the docket, including a jobs report, inflation data, and a preliminary reading on third-quarter gross domestic product. Those releases could make for a heady mix for a market that’s already showing evidence of pre-election jitters. The CBOE Volatility Index — known as Wall Street’s fear gauge — this week ticked back above a 20 handle. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 “I sort of refer to this period that we’re in right now as like a strange brew,” said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert. “It’ll either be a great week or a terrible week, based on how those things play out.” On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high , but the S & P 500 snapped a six-week win streak. Bond yields spiked back up this week, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing back above 4.25%, before easing to around 4.2%. Big Tech The Magnificent Seven results due out next week come as excitement in the names has dimmed somewhat, in part because of high valuations and lower projected earnings growth. In the third quarter, the Magnificent Seven names are expected to post year-over-year earnings growth of 18%. That’s down from around 35% in the second quarter, per FactSet. In fact, the high concentration of the mega-cap leaders in the S & P 500 spurred Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin this month to release a dim long-term forecast for the overall market. Instead of the 13% annualized S & P 500 return of the last decade, he expects the broad market to return just 3% on an annualized basis for the next 10 years. That concentration could be in full display next week. Despite the strong expected earnings growth from the Magnificent Seven, the remaining 493 S & P 500 companies are forecast to post expansion of just 0.1% for the third quarter year on year, per FactSet. “Though we try to find a new path to take us in a new direction, what we’re finding is that all roads keep leading back to the Mag Seven,” Siebert’s Malek said. Big data For many observers, there’s reason to be sanguine on markets. Stocks typically rally into year-end when they’ve had an atypically strong September and October, especially in presidential election years. Some shops, even now, are upping their 2024 targets. HSBC head of equity strategy Nicole Inui upped her S & P 500 year-end target to 5,900. She cited a Goldilocks outcome that’s “rightly” getting priced into markets given strong economic growth and easing inflation, as well as a broadening of the rally from mega-cap tech. “The pieces are falling into place for a bull case scenario,” Inui wrote. The releases next week could add confidence to that narrative. The October jobs report due out Friday is expected to show the U.S. economy having added 140,000 jobs, according to economists polled by FactSet. The September personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index out Thursday is forecast to show pricing pressures easing to 2%, down from 2.2%. Meanwhile, the first preliminary reading of the gross domestic product for the third quarter is expected to show a rise of 2.1%, down from 3% in the previous reading, according to FactSet. The report is due Wednesday. Elsewhere, investors are also anticipating the JOLTS survey, as well as the consumer confidence data, due out at the start of the week. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Oct. 28 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (October) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (October) Earnings: Ford Motor , On Semiconductor Tuesday, Oct. 29 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (September) 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (August) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (August) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (October) 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (September) Earnings: Visa , Chipotle Mexican Grill , First Solar , Caesars Entertainment , Advanced Micro Devices , McDonald’s , Pfizer , Royal Caribbean Group , PayPal , D.R Horton , Alphabet Wednesday, Oct. 30 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (October) 8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price first preliminary (Q3) 8:30 a.m. GDP first preliminary (Q3) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (September) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Earnings: Microsoft , Meta Platforms , Starbucks , Kraft Heinz , Caterpillar , Eli Lilly , GE Healthcare Technologies , Clorox , Booking Holdings Thursday, Oct. 31 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/19) 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q3) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/26) 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (September) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (September) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (September) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (September) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (October) Earnings: Apple , Amazon.com , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Uber Technologies , The Estee Lauder Companies , Mastercard , Generac Friday, Nov. 1 8:30 a.m. Jobs Report (October) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (October) 10 a.m. Construction Spending (September) 10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (October) Earnings: Exxon Mobil
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