Stock splits are all the rage with Nvidia the latest — how to know which will pay off
Stock splits have picked up in recent months. While stock splits don’t affect a company’s value, they can catalyze a move higher or lower, according to Wolfe Research. With this in mind, the firm provided a guideline to help investors gauge whether a stock split is a buying opportunity or a sign to steer clear. Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split as part of its quarterly earnings report on May 22. Nvidia said the stock split will make ownership “more accessible to employees and investors.” Dow Jones Industrial Average members Chipotle and Walmart also announced stock splits earlier this year. A stock split does nothing to change the value of an investor’s holding. Instead, it simply reduces a company’s share price, which is then offset by a matching increase in share count. For example, a 2-for-1 split of a $50 stock simply means that an investor would own two shares of a $25 stock instead of one share. However, lower share prices increase ownership opportunities, which can allow more retail investors to take part in trading the stock. “Splits are just optics, but they can impact stock prices,” Wolfe Chief Investment Strategist Chris Senyek wrote in a Thursday note. “They can make a company’s stock more attractive to some retail investors and add to speculative investment.” The firm examined the roughly 3,000 stock splits from large-cap U.S. companies since 1993 to examine their impact. On average, stock splits have historically indicated future underperformance — particularly for tech and communication names, Senyek said. That’s at least in part because a stock split typically follows a period of outperformance. However, Senyek noted that the trend has reversed over the past 10 years, with stocks that split managing to modestly outperform over the medium term. Here are the favorable criteria Senyek identified: Large market capitalization Higher absolute share price Multiple stock splits in the past “Larger cap, higher price and multiple splits is the ‘sweet spot’ for stock splits’ signaling mechanism,” said Senyek. “For what it’s worth, the pending Nvidia stock split meets the three aforementioned positive criteria.” Senyek also advised trading stock splits is best from a week before the split date until a week after. Take a look at some of the companies that recently paid out splits and where analysts see them headed next: Old Dominion Freight Line completed a two-for-one stock split in late March. The trucking company, which has a $37.2 billion market cap, has declined 21.1% in the current quarter and almost 15% year to date. Nonetheless, analysts remain bullish on the stock. They forecast nearly 22% upside potential from its current levels, according to FactSet. Baird upgraded Old Dominion to outperform from neutral earlier in May after its latest quarterly earnings report, recommending that investors “remain opportunistic buyers” of the stock. Walmart, the country’s largest retailer, declared a 3-for-1 stock split at the beginning of the year and began trading on a post-split basis on Feb. 26. It was the company’s first split in more than 20 years. Citigroup named Walmart as one of its top picks following the latest earnings season. The company managed to show that “everything is working together” and highlighted the price-to-earnings ratio, multiple expansion and earnings upside. Year to date, shares have rallied nearly 24%. The following table contains companies with looming stock splits: Chipotle will split its shares for the first time in its nearly 20 years as a public company in June. Shareholders will receive 50 shares for each one currently held in a 50-for-1 split. Chief Financial Officer Jack Hartung told CNBC that Chipotle wanted to increase liquidity for investors and spur more investment among its employees. Shares have surged 36% in 2024. More than one-third of the analysts covering Chipotle rate the stock as a buy or a strong buy, with the consensus price target indicating about 5% upside potential, according to FactSet data. CMG YTD mountain Chipotle shares in 2024 In addition to Nvidia, Amphenol is another tech name set for a stock split in June. The maker of fiber optic connectors declared a 2-for-1 stock split and will distribute the additional shares to investors on June 11. Amphenol has outperformed in 2024, climbing 34%. Although the majority of analysts covering the Connecticut-based company have issued a buy-equivalent rating, the average price target implies shares will rise less than 2% from current levels. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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