Super Tuesday exit polls and analysis for the 2024 primaries

Here’s what’s on the minds of some of today’s GOP primary voters: Trump and Haley voters are looking for different traits in a candidate.

We’ve seen this play out in the earlier contests, and it’s the same in Virginia, North Carolina and California. 

Voters supporting former President Donald Trump want someone who will fight for people like them, while those who support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley want someone who either shares their values or has the right temperament. 

Immigration and the economy continue to be top of mind for Republican voters

Immigration and the economy are the top issues on voters’ minds.

When asked to pick from a list of four issues, the economy and immigration have outranked abortion and foreign policy in every state where exit polls have been conducted so far.

These issues are also important to voters overall nationwide. 

Handling the issues: The economy, the border, international crisis

Trump has a big advantage over Haley on whom primary voters trust to handle the economy and border security. And he also leads Haley on who would better handle an international crisis.

Abortion: Some division within GOP electorate on national abortion ban

We see some differences in the states where we’ve polled on views of a national ban on abortion in all or most cases. 

In California and especially in Virginia, a clear majority of Republican primary voters oppose a ban. In North Carolina, Republican primary voters are more divided. (In New Hampshire, most GOP primary voters also opposed such a ban)

Most voters reject charge that Trump is mentally unfit for office

Haley has questioned Trump’s mental fitness for office, but it isn’t resonating with most voters, although Haley voters do not think Trump has the mental and physical health needed to serve, and Trump voters say the same about Haley. 

GOP primary voters disapprove strongly of Biden and are dissatisfied with the state of the country. 

Big majorities of Republican primary voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, with far more strongly disapproving than somewhat disapproving.

And these voters are unhappy with how things are going in the country, including many who are angry. 

This feeling has persisted through this primary campaign.

What about  the “big lie”?

Majorities of primary voters in North Carolina and California do not believe Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.

This has been the case in previous contests where exit polls have been conducted.  

In Virgina, opinion is more divided. (Fewer identify as MAGA in Virginia compared to North Carolina and one in 10 voters here are Democrats) 

And most think Trump would be fit to serve even if convicted

In each of the states where exit polls have been conducted, a majority of voters have said Trump would be fit for the presidency even if convicted of a crime. And that’s the case today, too. 

In states with more moderate and independent electorates this has been a smaller majority. 

Today, in North Carolina and California, most say Trump would be fit even if convicted. 

Opinions on this are more divided in Virginia.

When did voters decide?

A majority of primary voters in Virginia and North Carolina  decided on their candidate a while ago, most even before the Iowa caucuses. Fewer than one in five made their decision in the last week.

What happens after the primaries?

Right now, based on these exit polls, most Haley voters are not committed to supporting the GOP nominee. 

(Of note: Some of this sentiment was there in 2016. In states where exit polls were conducted in 2016, three in four non-Trump voters said they would be dissatisfied with Trump as their nominee. In the general election, nine in 10 Republicans backed Trump.)

Most Trump voters — with their candidate leading handily in the race for delegates — say they would vote for the GOP nominee no matter who it is.