The best geopolitical hedges from gold to oil and even stocks
The market is being bogged down by geopolitical risk amid escalating tensions in the Middle East , and the gains we’ve seen likely wouldn’t have been without the rise in oil and other risk assets. For those looking to hedge against geopolitical risk, stocks are actually a pretty good way to do so, along with oil and gold. Bank of America looked at the best performers in the three and six months after major geopolitical events, including the Iraq War and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine . The investment bank found that oil has historically been the best performer in the three months following major geopolitical events, generating a median return of 8.3%. On the other hand, gold is the best geopolitical hedge in the six months after such episodes. That commodity – which is considered a safe-haven asset in times of political and economic turbulence – has returned a median of 18.9%. Meanwhile, large-cap stocks have seen pretty sizable gains after these experiences over the years as well. They’ve brought in three- and six-month median returns of 4.6% and 4.9%, respectively. “[B]ad geopolitical events have not been bearish for risk assets in recent years, arguably the opposite,” analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note. “[I]nvestors expect any negative hit to consumer and business sentiment to be quickly offset by monetary and fiscal policy.” This isn’t over yet. Traders are now waiting to see whether Israel makes a retaliatory strike on crude facilities in Iran, which could cause even more of a spike in oil prices. This week, crude oil prices have already advanced almost 9% . “[A]ny risk-off jump in oil price [is] likely to be faded, and once Middle East tensions peak, [the] biggest relative winner from lower geopolitical risk premia (already falling in Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan) is International stocks, in our view,” Hartnett also said.
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