The Jets’ QB options for 2025 — with or without Aaron Rodgers

The dissolution of the New York Jets’ season can be best explained through a series of Aaron Rodgers quotes.

On Sept. 25, a few days after the Jets beat the Patriots on Thursday night: “I go back to this quote a lot, but Mike McCarthy said ‘our biggest struggle is going to be handling success,’ back in 2016 in Green Bay, and there’s a lot to that … I think that’s the mark of a great team, just, can you handle the success part.”

On Oct. 23, a few days after the Jets’ fourth straight loss: “I mean, every year presents its own challenges. Thankfully we’re not to the denouement of this season. There’s still a lot of time left. I think it’s important that we all just stay as sanguine as possible. It’s a long season, there’s a lot of ups and downs. We’ve had a lot of adversity already this season. We just got to stick together, get one, and then start to build off of that.”

On Nov. 17, after a loss to the Colts dropped the Jets to 3-8 and Rodgers was asked if he was “shocked”: “Yeah, I mean, that’s a buzz word so I’m not going to touch that in response to what you just said. I’m just going to echo that I’m disappointed.”

Rodgers said versions of the word “disappointed” four times in his latest postgame press conference. If he had used his thesaurus that morning, he might’ve considered “crestfallen.” Perhaps “chagrined.” Or, “dissatisfied.” That might be the word to best describe what the Jets are feeling about the play of their 40-year-old quarterback, the man that was supposed to lift this organization to the promised land.

The Jets went all-in on Rodgers, bringing along some of his closest friends — wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. It simply hasn’t worked out. In recent weeks Rodgers has played like a 40-year-old, seeming more concerned with avoiding getting hit by pass rushers than taking shots down the field. Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has only attempted six passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air, and only completed one of them. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since 2021; he’s averaging 211 passing yards in the five games since the Jets traded for Adams. For the season, he ranks 26th in EPA per attempt, and 31st in average air yards per attempt (6.7).

Rodgers’ explanations for his reticence to throw it deep have ranged from the offensive line needing to hold blocks for longer to, last week, the Colts defense deploying two-high coverage and forcing him into dump-offs and short throws.

“I just think he’s historically one of the best as far as protecting the ball and not putting the ball in jeopardy, so I think a lot of it’s that,” interim coach Jeff Ulbrich said. “For the team, he never wants to put the ball at risk, he never wants to give interceptions, and he’s done that his entire career and I think that’s a big part of it.”

The reality — even if no one in the Jets building wants to admit it — is that Rodgers’ style of play has made the offense far less explosive, relying on players like Adams, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to turn short throws into big plays. In other words, the Jets are wasting away what looks like a talented group of skill-position players on paper, aided by the best offensive line of the Joe Douglas era. It’s led to an inevitability: Rodgers might not be their best option at quarterback for 2025.

At this point, Rodgers likely won’t want to return to this situation anyway, with owner Woody Johnson cleaning house, firing Douglas, and likely moving on from Ulbrich and Hackett, Rodgers’ close friend. Johnson — who suggested benching Rodgers after a Week 4 loss to the Broncos, according to sources — isn’t expected to want Rodgers back in 2025 anyway, though certainly things can change if Rodgers’ play improves over the final six weeks of the season.

Since the 2024 season might as well be over, let’s look at two different quarterback paths for 2025: “Aaron Rodgers stays,” and “Aaron Rodgers goes.”

Aaron Rodgers stays

What would it take for Rodgers to return as the Jets’ quarterback in 2025?

Start here: As bad as it looks right now, statistically Rodgers is still on track for one of the better quarterback seasons in franchise history. That’s not saying much considering the Jets’ history at the position — and Rodgers’ numbers are inflated since the Jets have been passing the ball a lot — but it’s notable nonetheless. His current pace (if he plays all 17 games): 3,774 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.

If someone had said before the season those would be his stats, you’d think the Jets were in the playoff hunt. They aren’t, of course, but if you remove the circus, Rodgers is still a starting-caliber NFL quarterback, just not the sort of starter who can put a team on his back anymore.

Rodgers’ potential return is dependent on four factors:

• The next general manager: Is he open to keeping Rodgers?
• The next head coach: Will he be open to working with a 41-year-old Rodgers?
• Rodgers’ relationship with the next play-caller: Is the quarterback willing to compromise on his insistence that he have full control of the offense?
• The next quarterback: Is Rodgers willing to mentor a young QB knowing that — turning 42 in December of next season and playing for a team that won’t harbor Super Bowl aspirations — he is essentially a bridge quarterback?

As for the first two points: The Jets might not be appealing to a large segment of GM or head coach candidates if the expectation is that they have to keep Rodgers.

There aren’t many prospective head coaches with past ties to Rodgers. There’s current Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who the Jets aren’t expected to pursue if/when he’s fired. Rodgers spent a few years with Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, though Stenavich has never called plays and doesn’t seem to be a top candidate for this hiring cycle. Rodgers loves Ulbrich, but Ulbrich is 1-5 and overseeing one of the worst defenses in football since taking over as the interim head coach. Rodgers is known to respect Mike Vrabel, but Vrabel will likely have his pick of jobs and might not want to inherit an aging quarterback.

So if Rodgers wants to play for the Jets — or, really, anywhere in 2025 — he’s probably going to have to adjust his expectations for what a coach-quarterback marriage should look like.

Aaron Rodgers goes

There’s not much concern financially if the Jets decide to move on from Rodgers. He has no guaranteed money remaining after this season. If the Jets were to cut or trade him, or if he retires, there would be a significant dead-cap charge ($49 million), whether they incur it all in 2025 or spread it out over 2025 and ’26 by cutting Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation.

What are their options to replace him?

Tyrod Taylor is still under contract for another year at a $6.8 million cap hit, and Taylor will almost certainly be back in 2025 since most of his salary is guaranteed. There are worse options to put forward as a potential bridge quarterback, and Taylor is no stranger to that role — he’s done it in the past for Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.

Jordan Travis is on the roster too, but the 2024 fifth-round pick hasn’t practiced since late last year at Florida State when he broke his leg. The Jets have given no indication that he’s any closer to returning; then-head coach Robert Saleh said during training camp that Travis’s recovery was taking longer than expected. Unless the Jets get a look at him at some point this season (which seems unlikely) he’s best viewed as a lottery ticket and someone to consider as an option beyond 2025.

This free agency class isn’t especially exciting: Sam Darnold is a top option, and that’s not happening. There are veteran backups with starting experience, like Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo, none of whom would necessarily be an upgrade over Taylor. Russell Wilson turns 36 next week and is on the decline, though if he continues to play well for Pittsburgh the Steelers will likely find a way to keep him. Justin Fields is an option but his ceiling as a thrower is capped. Daniel Jones will likely be available too.

As for the rookie class, the Jets are currently projected to pick seventh by Tankathon, clumped in a group of nine teams with two or three wins. It’s not considered a great quarterback class either. Based on Dane Brugler’s latest rankings, potential options in the first round (either in the Top 10 or via trade back) include Miami’s Cam Ward, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. In the second round: Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Penn State’s Drew Allar are among the options.

Rodgers can change the narrative if he plays well over the final six games and the Jets win some games, though as it stands now I expect them to have a new starting quarterback in 2025: Taylor and/or a rookie.

(Photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)