The state poll that could shape the race for The Lodge
Western Australia’s Labor government is on track to retain power at the state election, dashing hopes of a comeback by the conservative opposition.
Analysts say the Liberal and National parties could regain previously held blue-ribbon seats at the March 8 poll but are unlikely to secure enough to oust Labor premier Roger Cook.
Labor holds 53 seats in the lower house with the Liberals and Nationals holding three each.
To win government the conservative parties would need to pull off an extraordinary turnaround, political analyst John Phillimore said.
“Labor won by so much last time, almost everybody’s expectation is they will win,” said Professor Phillimore, the executive director of Curtin University’s John Curtin Institute of Public Policy.
“There haven’t been any major scandals and they haven’t caused too much upset to too many people.”
Prof Phillimore said Labor would undoubtedly lose some seats to the Liberal-National alliance but it would still have a “comfortable” victory.
“It’s really whether or not they come back to where they were in 2017, which was at the time a massive victory, or will they go back to a much more closely-fought election,” he told AAP.
Labor’s 2017 victory was the party’s biggest in the state’s history at that time, claiming 41 seats to the conservatives’ 18.
That result was surpassed in 2021 when then-premier Mark McGowan led Labor to an unprecedented landslide victory, primarily due to the party’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and its closed border policy.
“To win the election, the (Liberal and Nationals have) to between them effectively win 25 seats,” Prof Phillimore said.
“That just seems far too many steps for them to take.”
Political commentator Peter Kennedy said the Libby Mettam-led WA Liberals must regain the blue ribbon seats of Nedlands, Churchlands, Bateman and South Perth, which were lost in 2021.
“The Liberals would be in deep trouble if they couldn’t make significant inroads, particularly by winning back those formerly safe seats,” the Notre Dame University adjunct professor said.
He said Labor could lose 14 seats, “perhaps even a bit more”.
“A lot of those former Liberals who voted for Labor because it was led by Mark McGowan last time around, they’ll go back to the fold and that will help the Liberals in their recovery,” Mr Kennedy said.
“(But the) Liberals still have to do a lot more work to regain that lost ground.”
During early campaigning, the conservatives have targeted the Cook government’s handling of WA’s booming economy and large infrastructure projects, along with crime rates, power outages and health services.
But inflation and housing supply are the top issues on WA voters’ minds, Mr Kennedy said.
“The cost of living is the number one issue, then there’s the issue of housing (prices which) have gone through the roof, plus rental prices have gone through the roof as well,” he said.
Mr Cook and his ministers have been travelling around the state for several months making dozens of election promises off the back of another massive surplus.
The measures include cost of living relief and providing more services and infrastructure to further develop Labor’s vision for the state.
The ballot result will be closely watched in Canberra ahead of a federal election which must be held by May 17.
The 2022 federal election saw a huge swing away from the Liberal Party in WA, with Labor picking up four seats.
Both major parties will be hoping they poll strongly at a state level as WA could be the key to winning the federal election.
“The one thing that (federal) Labor’s got going for it, it does seem that most of the polling has shown that in WA at least, its vote is holding up better than it is in other states,” Prof Phillimore said.
“Maybe all these visits by (Prime Minister) Anthony Albanese, which he talks about endlessly, is having an effect, but it won’t take much for him to lose two seats.”
The Cook government enters the caretaker period on Wednesday when official campaigning will start.
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