The winners and losers of the Hezbollah-Israel peace deal
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced on Tuesday is essentially a rerun of UN Resolution 1701, the deal that ended the 2006 Lebanon war and ushered in 18 years of something approximating peace.
No one dares hope the new arrangement will last that long – and it may not even survive the week – but it has been agreed now because the timing works for all the main parties involved, including Israel, Lebanon, Iran, the US and Europe.
Israel’s defence establishment is the biggest winner. The IDF has lost more than 50 soldiers and a vast amount of ordinance since it rolled over the border two months ago but it has significantly degraded Hezbollah as a fighting force.
The Iran-backed terror group has been decapitated, its vast arsenal of missiles reduced by half, its tunnel systems in southern Lebanon destroyed and its finance systems and supply chains seriously disrupted.
Credit: IDF
It is not clear if the IDF has done enough to allow Israel’s 60,000 displaced citizens to return to their border homes but Israel’s generals will see that as a political promise made rashly by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and not their problem.
For them, the priority was to remove Hezbollah as an existential threat to the state of Israel and that has been done – for the moment at least.
It has, in the language of the generals, been an epic “mowing” of the terrorist lawn.
For Mr Netanyahu and his ruling coalition, the win is less emphatic. The displaced are not yet back in their homes, with opposition politicians saying on Tuesday that only “half the job” had been done.
Despite his debatable claim to have sent Hezbollah “back decades”, a snap poll on Tuesday night of his coalition voters found only 20 per cent supported the ceasefire deal.
“Withdrawing forces now will create a dynamic that will make it difficult for us, and make it easier for Hezbollah to regroup,” said Benny Gantz, the National Unity leader. “We must not do only half the job.”
“Hezbollah still has its stockpile of tens of thousands of rockets,” added Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister. “An impressive military achievement … is being translated into a total security-diplomatic failure.”
The new agreement replicates UN resolution 1701, requiring Hezbollah to pull back north of the Litani river and Israel to stop flying over Lebanese airspace.
As before, it is to be policed by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). The US, France and others will form a committee that the two sides must consult before taking action over alleged breaches.
The agreement replicates 1701 rather than providing anything more ambitious because, under Lebanon’s constitution, any new deal would have to have to have been approved by the Lebanese parliament, which Hezbollah is a part of.
Which brings us to Hezbollah and its master, Iran.
For the terrorist group, survival – politically and militarily – is the reward of the new agreement. Despite bombing Israel for more than a year and pushing some 60,000 Israelis off their land, it will live to fight another day.
The group will explain away its losses and those of the Lebanese people – more than a million of whom have been displaced – through the self-serving prism of martyrdom and resistance, just as it has always done.
Iran too has reason to be pleased. Hezbollah is its ace card in the region which, just a month ago, looked like it might lose entirely.
By separating the war in Gaza from the fight in the north and agreeing to a ceasefire, it has won a reprieve that will allow it to continue to project power from Lebanon across the region.
Joe Biden, the US president, presented the deal as a victory for US negotiators but it will be president-elect Donald Trump who has most to gain.
He won in November promising to “end wars” and it is that commitment which several were saying last night brought Israel and Iran – the two principal parties in this agreement – to the negotiating table.
“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” said Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, on Tuesday night.
“His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East.”
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