These 2 stocks beat the S&P 500 in election Novembers no matter who won
Two stocks have outperformed the S & P 500 every November when elections have been held over the past three decades — regardless of the outcome, according to a CNBC Pro study. Electrical and industrials giant Eaton Corporation and Sweden’s second-largest lender, Svenska Handelsbanken , are the two stocks that beat the U.S. benchmark in November every election year. CNBC Pro screened for stocks currently in the MSCI World Index that gained more than the S & P 500 — or lost less than the index — in November of every election year since 1988. The 36-year period has seen four Republicans and five Democrats elected to the White House. Eaton Corp The electrical products and services company is expected to benefit from secular trends including the EV transition, AI (as utilities lay down more power cables for data centers) and the shift to renewable energy sources. “ETN remains one of the most attractive large cap electrification plays in Industrials,” said Mizuho Securities analyst Brett Linzey in a note to clients on Oct. 31, referring to Eaton’s stock ticker. “Electrical activity has shifted into a higher gear as the mega project funnel remains robust and ETN is converting wins at even higher rates given its proficiency and domain expertise.” Mizuho expects Eaton shares to rise by about 15% to $385 over the next 12 months. Svenska Handelsbanken Analysts are divided on Sweden’s Handelsbanken: 80% of those covering the stock give it either a sell or hold rating, according to FactSet, including those at Arctic Securities. However, Arctic’s Roy Tilley raised the bank’s price target marginally — giving the stock only a 1.1% upside — after the bank said “it apparently has some kind of hedges in place not only in the UK but also in Sweden” where its interest income looks set to remain relatively protected even as central banks cut rates. Every time is different Historical performance is never a guarantee of future performance, and stocks often move for idiosyncratic reasons. This year, for instance, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision on interest rates on Thursday, which could also influence the trajectory of stocks. Deutsche Bank’s macro strategist Henry Allen pointed out that in 2020, the stock market’s rise was supported by news of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine the week after the election. In 2012, meanwhile, when President Barack Obama was standing for re-election, the U.S. was expected to make significant spending cuts, while Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The strategist also highlighted that in 2008 “markets plummeted” as the global financial crisis took center stage. “So the election isn’t the only variable, and this week there’ll be a lot of focus on Thursday’s Fed decision as well,” Allen said in a note to clients on Nov. 2.
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