Tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico has 60% chance of formation by early next week
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several tropical disturbances Saturday morning. One has expanded to cover a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico and has a higher chance of developing into a storm.
According to the NHC, the tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico has a 60% chance of formation over the next seven days and is likely to form by early to mid-next week.
The other three tropical disturbances, including remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, have low chances of formation.
Here’s what we know so far:
NHC tracking tropical system in Gulf of Mexico with 60% chance of formation
Tropical advisory for 8 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024, shows activity that could potentially form into a system, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
According to the NHC’s 7 a.m. weather advisory, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 0%.
Formation chance through 7 days: Medium, 60%.
More: Where are all those predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they’re still coming.
Hurricane tracker: NHC tracking three other tropical systems in the AtlanticHow many named storms have hit in 2024?
So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:
Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
Hurricane Beryl: Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
Hurricane Ernesto: Struck Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
Hurricane Francine: Made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11 as a Category 2 hurricane near Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall before rapidly weakening after landfall.
Tropical Storm Gordon: Developed on Sept. 13, but was hindered by wind shear and made minimal intensification. Gordon weakened back to a tropical depression on Sept. 15 before degenerating into a trough of low pressure on Sept. 17.
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— USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Tropical system in Gulf of Mexico has 60% chance of formation
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