Trump’s EV Tax Threats vs. Rivian’s $6.6 Billion Boost

I have a few central themes for 2025.

One is the ‘vanity’ trade based on diet drugs. News today was that the Biden administration is looking to expand coverage for the drugs through Medicare.

That could be reversed by Trump of course, but I do not think it will be.

Another theme is EVs-not so popular given the tariffs for one.

And secondly, given that Trump is threatening to remove the $7500 tax credit for consumers buying an EV.

But the used car market in EVs has picked up.

Today, it was announced that Rivian (NASDAQ:) wins preliminary approval for $6.6 Billion US loan. Federal Funds would support construction of a Georgia plant, plans that were halted earlier in the year to save money.

Again, who knows what will happen next year, but for now, the stock ran up over 2% Tuesday after over a 10% move higher on Monday.

Hence, we look at the weekly chart.

Yesterday, I introduced you to the weekly exponential moving average.

It was about Nu Skin (NYSE:) and how the price needed to clear that EMA after nearly 2 years trading below it.

Rivian looks a bit different.

Whereas NUS has the EMA well distanced from the 50-WMA (blue), the chart of Rivian is a bit different.

Please watch the podcast I did with Geoff Bysshe yesterday as we cover this extensively and tell you some great insider secrets!

Rivian first must clear the EMA. Ideally, we would like to see this clear on a weekly close.

Then, with the 50-WMA so close, we would like to see that clear as well. Note that in this chart I also show you the Leadership indicator. Rivian could outperform the benchmark. That too would be healthy for the stocks’ price.

The bottom line is that RIVN established a big base around $10.

Now, if the stock closes above 11.50, we think that is a great start.

ETF Summary

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)

S&P 500 (SPY) 600 pivotal

Russell 2000 (IWM) Hopefully just some long liquidation and not a key reversal

Dow (DIA) 445 pivotal

Nasdaq (QQQ) 500 now pivotal

Regional banks (KRE) 65 support 70 resistance

Semiconductors (SMH) 235 the 200-DMA to hold 250 resistance

Transportation (IYT) Some profit-taking but still healthy

Biotechnology (IBB) 138 support

Retail (XRT) 80 support

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 79.50 pivotal