US Election and the S&P 500: A Technical Perspective on Expected Market Trends

Outlook before the Election:

It is anticipated that the will move in distinct directions before and after the US presidential election. The anticipated performance is technical examined as follows.

Volatility: As a reflection of the uncertainty brought on by potential policy changes, the S&P 500 tends to be more volatile in the run-up to and following elections than it is during the actual election season.

Economic Conditions: Given the increased chance of a recession in the ensuing year, the stock market may have anticipated or reacted to weaker economic conditions near the end of a presidential election year.

Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has historically experienced lower returns during presidential election years compared to non-election years. The average price return during presidential election years is +7.2%, while the average price return during non-election years is +12.5%.

The S&P 500 index has historically performed differently during various economic crises:

Recovering to pre-recession levels has taken the S&P 500 index, on average, 647 trading days since 2000. It has taken the 330 trading days on average to recover. The P/E multiples and earnings of S&P 500 usually decrease and P/E multiples contract during recessions. The S&P 500 drawdown is average at 31.5%, while the P/E compression is average at 26.0%. Market Performance: The S&P 500 index has declined an average of 8.8% during the last four recessions since 1990.

During COVID-19 Crash from February to April 2020, the S&P 500 index to drop by 9.99%. The index recovered to its pre-recession level after 126 trading days. Whereas at the time of Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009, the S&P 500 index dropped 37.56%. For the index to return to its pre-recession level, 895 trading days were needed.

Technical Indicator Outlook:

Moving Averages: The S&P 500 is trending positively, as seen by the rising trends of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. But there may be a little correction because the 50-day moving average is getting close to the 200-day moving average. If its turn to be negative cross over of two indicative moving averages.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI is over 70, indicating that the market is overbought. This can cause a temporary retreat prior to the election.

Bollinger Bands: The S&P 500 is currently trading close to the upper band, which suggests significant volatility. This can cause a temporary adjustment prior to the election.

Short-term Correction: Owing to overbought conditions and elevated volatility, the S&P 500 may undergo a short-term correction prior to the election.

Long-term Trend: It is anticipated that the S&P 500 will keep rising as a result of the robust economy and the possibility of additional policy changes following the election.

Uncertainty: The S&P 500’s performance both before and after the election is impacted by the uncertainty of the results and any potential changes to policy that may ensue.

Long-term Fundamentals: Longer-term fundamentals, not recent political developments, should be the basis for investment decisions. There are many variables that might affect the stock market, and it is crucial to take the larger business and economic environment into account. One such element is the cycle of the US presidential election.

Disclaimer:

Past Performance: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The S&P 500’s historical performance during election years is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Uncertainty: The S&P 500’s performance before and after the election is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the outcome and the potential policy changes that may follow. Hence, the article is for the educational purpose.