Weight loss drugs, Trump and conflicts shape ag outlook
The use of weight loss drugs could change what Australians eat, with the agriculture industry eyeing a possible decrease in food consumption.
Uptake of drugs like Ozempic, which suppress the appetite and make users feel full more quickly, have been listed among trends and drivers that may affect Australia’s ag sector in 2025.
“While it is unlikely to be a game changer in 2025 for Australian food and agri products, the impact of reduced food consumption by individuals taking these medications should not be overlooked,” the Rabobank annual outlook said.
People using the drugs have swapped processed and calorie-dense foods for fresh and protein-rich produce and yoghurt, according to US studies highlighted in the report.
Agriculture is broadly set to fare well, though US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports were expected to keep markets volatile.
Trump campaigned for the presidency on introducing tariffs of between 10 to 20 per cent on products from other countries, along with 60 per cent on goods from China.
He has since ordered US federal agencies undertake a review of various trade issues by April 1.
The US is a key destination for Australian beef, creating some uncertainty for producers and exporters.
“If trade duties are imposed as threatened, they are likely to be met with retaliation, with agri commodities possibly being impacted,” the report said.
The conflict in the Middle East and rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea due to piracy were also behind continued market volatility, along with the war in Ukraine.
Despite the geopolitical tensions and drought conditions in parts of South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria, agribusinesses were generally set to do well.
Though soil moisture was lower than at the start of 2024, much of Australia’s sheep and cattle country has received enough rain to keep up feed supply.
“For beef and sheep producers, the outlook for farm-grown feed in the first half of 2025 overall once again looks promising,” RaboResearch’s Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said.
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