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Where the tech trade could head now that the Fed is cutting
A rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve could bode well for some technology stocks. Markets are gearing up for a long-awaited rate cut from the central bank Wednesday after more than two years of aggressive hiking to stem the spread of sticky inflation. It will end one of the most aggressive periods of tightening in recent history. Tech stocks have already experienced another blowout year as AI tailwinds show no signs of dwindling, but the central bank’s easing could offer even more upside as earnings look poised to benefit from lower borrowing costs. The three months following a cut could also prop-up the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which has tended to rally more than 6% on average in the three months after the first cut in a policy cycle, according to data from Canaccord Genuity. The index has jumped more than 13.2% and 19%, respectively, six months and a year after an initial cut, the firm noted. Year to date the index is up more than 17%. To find the potential technology winners in this cycle, CNBC screened for the median performance of S & P 500 information technology members since 1984 in the three months following the first Fed cut. Here are some of the biggest winners and losers following a rate cut: Western Digital has rallied a median of 26.6 — the highest of the group — in such a scenario. Shares of the chip storage company have rallied nearly 26% this year, benefiting from ongoing AI benefits. Apple has been another big winner following a rate cut, rising a median of 16.2% in the past. Shares of the technology giant have gained 12% this year, despite a nearly 6% drop since the start of September. Earlier this month, Apple debuted its iPhone 16 model, incorporating its long-awaited AI capabilities dubbed Apple Intelligence. Shares have pulled back as investors worry whether the new product features will be enough to woo shoppers to upgrade. AI chipmaking beneficiary Advanced Micro Devices also has benefited on the heels of a hike, rallying a median of 11.4% in the past. Shares of the competitor to AI chip leader Nvidia have risen less than 2% so far this year and finished Tuesday’s session nearly 29% off its highs reached in early March. To be sure, not every technology stock is destined for upside in the face of a cutting cycle. Micron Technology ‘s track record is the worst of the group. The stock has fallen a median of nearly 14% in the three months following an initial cut. Of late, Micron shares have benefited from heightened memory needs fueled by AI excitement. Shares are up about 3.5% year to date. The stock sits more than 42% off its highs. Other potential losers following a rate cut include Analog Devices , Teradyne and IBM .
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