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Why Wall Street can’t have another weak U.S. jobs report
All eyes are on the August jobs report this week. The non-farm payrolls data coming out Friday could confirm for investors whether July’s disappointing report — which helped bring about the Aug. 5th market storm — was a one-off, or a cause for greater concern. Of course, the upcoming jobs report is expected to be a stronger one than the last. Economists polled by Dow Jones are forecasting the U.S. economy to have added 161,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to have eased back to 4.2%, from 4.3%. But a miss has the potential to dent the stock recovery rally just as it gets going. Some investors worry the Friday jobs number could serve as the catalyst for yet another significant pullback they see coming at some point over the next eight weeks in what’s already a seasonally challenging period for markets. “If we had two disappointing jobs reports in a row, investors might start to get concerned that we’re actually experiencing an economic slowdown versus a normalization of the economy,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Securities. “So I think that we need to see something in line with consensus or better.” September is historically a weak month for equities. In data going back to 1950, the S & P 500 has dropped an average 0.7%, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 To be sure, some are concerned that the more worrying scenario would be a jobs report that comes in hotter than expected, which could lower expectations for rate cuts. Currently, markets are pricing in a rate cut with certainty at this month’s Fed meeting, though investors differ on whether it will be a quarter- or half-point move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “I think the perception of the soft landing moved to hard landing on the July jobs report, because unemployment picked up,” Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Tuesday. “Now, if the jobs report’s solid, everyone’s going to flip back to like, ‘things are too good, the Fed has to actually not cut,'” Lee said. “And so, I think that’s what I think is going to be the debate on Friday.” However, Hogan expects investors are more likely to prefer a stronger-than-expected jobs figure over an indication of slowing economic growth. “I think good news is good news, meaning the better the news and the economic data, the better the market will react to that agnostic of the amount of monetary policy easing we see this year,” Hogan said. “So I think the market should and will prefer better data and a gradual easing process, versus worse data and more of an emergency rate-cutting process.”
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