Wild Tennessee rivalry win against Alabama puts Tide in perilous Playoff bubble position

By Kennington Smith III, Joe Rexrode and David Ubben

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — No. 11 Tennessee earned a statement 24-17 win on Saturday against No. 7 Alabama, dealing another blow to its rival’s College Football Playoff hopes in the Crimson Tide’s first season under Kalen DeBoer.

After a stagnant first half on both sides, Tennessee came alive offensively in the second half, including a 16-yard touchdown pass from Nico Iamaleava to Chris Brazzell II in the back of the end zone with 5:52 left to put the Vols ahead by four. A few possessions later, Tennessee sealed the win with a Will Brooks interception of Jalen Milroe with 1:24 to play.

NICO TO BRAZZELL FOR THE LEAD IN THE 4TH 🔥🔥 @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/jzq1gvK1kl

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 19, 2024

Against Tennessee’s second-ranked defense, Alabama’s final four drives totaled 3 yards on 11 plays. Critically, the Tide got the ball back on their own 30-yard line with 2:25 left and went backward. After an incomplete pass on third down, Kendrick Law was called for a personal foul penalty, backing the Tide up to fourth-and-22 on their own 18. Despite having all three timeouts left, DeBoer opted to go for it, and a screen pass came up well short of a first down.

The Tide subsequently held the Vols to a field goal, but Milroe’s final pass on Alabama’s last possession was intercepted.

Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC) had won 15 consecutive games in the Third Saturday in October rivalry from 2007-21 before the Vols (6-1, 3-1) finally got over the hump with a dramatic home win in 2022. Though the Tide won last year in Tuscaloosa, Saturday marked Tennessee’s second consecutive win against Alabama at Neyland Stadium, something that hadn’t happened since 2004 and 2006.

It also marked Alabama’s second loss before November — something that hadn’t happened since Nick Saban’s first season in 2007.

Will Brooks called game! pic.twitter.com/DWMbCUWSTF

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 20, 2024

Alabama, Tennessee in different places in SEC race

Suddenly there’s real hope for Tennessee, not only for a Playoff bid, but in the SEC race. After an idle week to celebrate, the Vols’ schedule finishes this way: Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Georgia, at Vanderbilt. That run actually looks tougher now than it did a month ago, because MSU has located its pulse, Kentucky is going to play some defense and Vanderbilt is a legitimate SEC team. But if the Vols can handle business other than Georgia — preferably with a competitive performance there — a spot in the Playoff should be a solid bet.

Alabama entered Saturday with a 76 percent chance to make the Playoff, according to The Athletic’s projections model, while Tennessee was at 31 percent. The Vols jumped to 55 percent after the win, and the Tide fell to 52 percent.

Here’s how Alabama finishes things out in an SEC race that started Saturday with three teams unbeaten in league play and six more with one loss: Missouri, at LSU, at Oklahoma, Auburn. With all due respect to the difficulty of predicting this league and sport at large, just one of those games, at LSU, looks difficult. Winning out is on the table, but it’s also absolutely necessary if this team wants any chance of making the College Football Playoff. As for the SEC title game? It looks like a distant hope. — Rexrode

Sorry, you can’t take the goalpost out that tunnel. Pivot. pic.twitter.com/Q3XnvMdTEt

— Joe Rexrode (@joerexrode) October 19, 2024

Sloppy mistakes make Alabama winning out feel unlikely

At its conception, the 12-team Playoff was supposed to make it nearly impossible for teams like Alabama to miss the field. Now, in its first year, a Playoff without Alabama is a very real possibility — a shocking development, given that the Tide made the four-team Playoff in eight of 10 seasons.

A loss to Tennessee coupled with the loss to Vanderbilt and a lackluster win against South Carolina puts Alabama in a simple but challenging position: win out or bust. Given what we’ve seen from the Crimson Tide over the past month, winning out doesn’t feel likely. Alabama hosts Missouri next week before a bye week and a road trip to LSU. There’s still a trip to Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl to come in the final week of the regular season.

More immediately, Saturday’s result is hugely disappointing for Alabama. More than the loss itself, it’s how Alabama keeps finding itself in these positions. It was another penalty-heavy game (15 for 115 yards), another game with costly turnovers, another game where it’s been out-gained (408 to 314) and seemingly out-coached down the stretch.

There’s no question that the talent is there, but the idea of national championship contention for Alabama feels further away than it’s been in a long time. — Smith

What’s different about Alabama under DeBoer?

The biggest issue right now is poor second-half play.

The 2023 Alabama team was known for second-half comebacks with six. After Saturday’s game, it’s clear this year’s team doesn’t have the same DNA.

Saturday marked the fourth consecutive game in which Alabama trailed at some point in the fourth quarter. In the past three games, it had been outscored 57-45 in the second half. After Saturday’s loss, that margin has grown to 78-55.

This was the classic tale of two halves for the Alabama defense. A smothering effort in the first half gave way to a disastrous second half in which Tennessee’s offense exploded for 21 points and several third-down conversions after it had just one in the first half. The Alabama offense managed two touchdown drives when needed in the third quarter, but it stalled in the fourth as the Tide couldn’t get over the hump.

It’s a concerning trend now and moving forward. Alabama’s margin for error is gone, and it’s going to take sound four-quarter execution to win out. The Tide have to do some soul-searching to find that level of play entering November. — Smith

Heupel’s conservative decisions hurt, then help

It’s been stunning to watch Tennessee coach Josh Heupel forfeit opportunities to be aggressive on fourth-down calls, decisions that used to be no-brainers when this offense was producing at a high level. The first one he made Saturday felt like a mistake — rather than try to get his offense going early with a fourth-and-3 at the Alabama 35, he sent out Max Gilbert to try a 53-yard field goal that was missed. He made a similar — though more defensible — decision later in the first half. This time it was fourth-and-7 and a miss from 50.

But Heupel’s instinct, amid boos, proved correct in the fourth quarter with a decision to punt on fourth-and-6 from the Alabama 41, down 17-14. A perfect punt and coverage resulted in Alabama’s ball at the 4, a three-and-out and a Tennessee go-ahead touchdown on the next series. The Vols’ stingy defense again came up big the rest of the way to deliver the program’s third AP top-10 win in its past five tries. — Rexrode

Tennessee overcomes another slow start with fast finish

Tennessee’s first-half offensive struggles continued against Alabama. For the third consecutive game, the Vols failed to score in the first half. That hadn’t happened since 1963 — and the drought came after the Vols totaled 149 points in first halves against Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma to start this season.

Four Tennessee drives reached Alabama territory in the first half Saturday, but the Volunteers failed to score on any of them. Running back Dylan Sampson fumbled for the first time in his career (on his 284th career carry) at the end of a possession in the first quarter that reached Alabama’s 18. Iamaleava returned from a back injury and threw an ugly red-zone interception while attempting to throw the ball away on a broken play. And Gilbert missed those kicks from 53 and 50 yards.

But after totaling just 143 yards in the first half, the Vols amassed 265 in the second half, while also avoiding costly turnovers. Though Iamaleava threw for just 194 yards, the Vols piled up 214 rushing yards behind Sampson’s 26 carries for 139 yards and two touchdowns and ultimately averaged 5.7 yards per play to the Tide’s 4.0 as their defense stood tall again. — Ubben

(Photo: Butch Dill / Getty Images)