WNBA playoff projection: How far will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever go?

In the grand scheme of the 2024 season, the identity of the eighth seed in the WNBA postseason bracket is relatively inconsequential. The New York Liberty have been the best team in the league for essentially the entire year. Their net rating of plus-12.1 points per 100 possessions is more than 15 points better than any of the three teams vying for the final playoff spot, and a three-game series should be short work for the title contenders.

But the ultimate outcome shouldn’t overshadow the fun of the process, and the minor miracle it would be for the Washington Mystics to claim that final bid. As a reminder, the Mystics lost 12 consecutive games to start the year. The 2015 Los Angeles Sparks currently hold the WNBA record for the longest opening losing streak (0-7) before making the playoffs. Seven games represented 20 percent of that 34-game season in 2015, but Washington crushed that mark by going 0-fer for 30 percent of this year, yet it has rallied to sit in the No. 8 seed with two games to play.

The Mystics weathered injuries to Brittney Sykes, Karlie Samuelson and Shakira Austin while trading away Myisha-Hines Allen. That simply meant more playmaking duties for Ariel Atkins, who has the highest assist rate of her career; more offense from Stefanie Dolson, now the league’s second-best high-volume 3-point shooter; and real rotation minutes from Emily Engstler and Sika Koné, each already on the third teams in their young WNBA careers. Somehow, that has coalesced into a season that has combined player development with a postseason chase, one that will result in at least one lottery pick whether they make the playoffs or not thanks to a superb trade from the 2023 WNBA Draft.

The three-team race between the Mystics, Sky and Dream likely will last until the final day of the season (Thursday), and it has provided a two-week appetizer to a postseason that always seems to zoom by. For now, Washington lands in the projected field of eight. In lieu of rankings this week, here’s how I predict the playoffs will unfold as well as some information to keep in mind for each playoff team with the postseason only two games away.

Predicted champion: Minnesota Lynx

1. New York Liberty

Taking away favorite status from the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces is a tall order, but that’s what the Liberty have done during a dominant regular season. Three players have put together All-WNBA-worthy seasons for New York, and the surrounding depth far exceeds what the Liberty were working with in 2023. But heading into the postseason, it’s hard to overlook the recent swoon of Sabrina Ionescu. The fifth-year guard is averaging 17.4 points and 6 assists since the Olympic break, but while shooting 35 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point range. New York hasn’t seen any meaningful slippage despite Ionescu’s struggles, boasting a 12.6 net rating during that stretch while remaining in pole position for the top seed in the playoffs. However, the Liberty will need a better version of Ionescu against the top teams in the league . They lost to Connecticut and most recently Minnesota with their lead guard shooting 3 of 13 and 4 of 21, respectively.

2. Minnesota Lynx

The hottest team during the second half of the season is on pace to set an all-time record for assist percentage. The Lynx have assisted on 76.6 percent of their field goals this season, a testament to their revamped style of play involving quick and precise ball movement that keeps defenses in rotation. Minnesota has five players making at least 40 percent of their 3-point field-goal attempts, including the newly-acquired Hines-Allen, as the Lynx consistently turn down good shots for great ones to cash in on the open looks created by an extra pass. Opponents haven’t yet been able to solve the Lynx’s egalitarian offense, and they’re running out of time.

BIG SHOT BRIDGET. pic.twitter.com/gacXonfeh6

— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) September 15, 2024

3. Connecticut Sun

The Marina Mabrey era in Connecticut thus far has to be considered a success. When the Sun traded for Mabrey, the popular assumption was that she would be starting to inject a little more perimeter shot creation into Connecticut’s offense. But instead of disrupting the starting lineup, the Sun have mixed and matched around Mabrey, figuring out who is cooking on any given night during the first three quarters while generally handing the keys to Mabrey in the fourth to close. She is second on the team in fourth-quarter minutes since arriving (behind Alyssa Thomas) and first in fourth-quarter points. Connecticut is 19.6 points per 100 possessions better with Mabrey on the court since the trade, and she is knocking down 42 percent of her triples in a Sun uniform. Although Connecticut hasn’t climbed in the standings, the Sun are 9-1 against the other teams on their side of the playoff bracket, putting them in strong position to advance to a sixth consecutive trip to the WNBA semifinals.

4. Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson is two rebounds away from the most prolific scoring and rebounding seasons in WNBA history in the same year. As a result, the Aces will have the best player on the court in every playoff game they compete in this season, however long that postseason run is for the defending champs. After wasting Wilson’s 42-point effort against Dallas, Las Vegas has won its last seven games that the two-time MVP has played, including four in a row against Connecticut and Indiana. The Aces have won in blowout fashion, held on in clutch situations and reeled off double-digit comebacks in the process. Las Vegas’ full body of work still doesn’t scream championship contender, but it’s hard to bet against a team with this historical track record, especially when Wilson is the ultimate trump card in any matchup.

Skylar Diggins-Smith has been a force over the past month, averaging 18.9 points and 6.2 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field. Perhaps more importantly, she has been Seattle’s closer of late. She had nine fourth-quarter points in a win in Los Angeles on Wednesday, then she followed with game-winning free throws in Dallas on Friday, before providing the game-saving steal with Seattle up one possession against the Sparks on Sunday. Diggins-Smith hasn’t played in the postseason since 2021, when she helped Phoenix make a surprising run to the finals. In the aftermath of that loss, Diggins-Smith sounded excited about all the lessons she had learned in terms of preparation and mentality, and this is her first chance to apply those (incidentally, against the last team she beat in the playoffs — the Aces).

6. Indiana Fever

The Fever seemed to bump up against a metaphorical ceiling this week, failing to take down Las Vegas in two tries and suffering a season sweep at the hands of the champs. But Indiana won’t see the Aces until a potential finals series, and even accounting for those two games, the Fever still have the league’s best offense over the past month. They’re collectively shooting 40 percent from 3-point range on the highest volume of attempts in the league, which will provide for a fascinating matchup in the first round against either Minnesota or Connecticut, which are the top two 3-point defenses in the league.

GO DEEPER

From shaky start to playoff bound, how Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever revived their season

7. Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury aren’t exactly soaring into the postseason, with three wins in their last 10 games, and Kahleah Copper currently out with a back issue. Given that Bec Allen has also been out since the Olympics, it’s hard to evaluate this version of Phoenix. At this point, the Mercury have to hope they can avoid Connecticut as long as possible, because no team has been worse against the Sun. They’ve lost their four matchups by an average of 20 points and shot a historically poor 1 of 27 from 3-point range in the first of those defeats. Phoenix didn’t fare much better against Minnesota, but a 1-3 record during the regular season provides more hope than matching up with Connecticut.

8. Washington Mystics

The Mystics have the third-best defense in the league since the Olympic break, and perhaps the most surprising element of their success is how many younger players have contributed to that defensive effort. Emily Engstler was cut from two teams before landing in Washington, but the Mystics defense is 7 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court, as exemplified by a game-saving block against Atlanta Friday. Koné played 244 minutes over two seasons before arriving in Washington, yet she has been immediately empowered with the Mystics. Who could have possibly imagined a drive-and-dish from Engstler to Koné after the Hines-Allen trade (and not during garbage time)?

BIG TIME BLOCK by Emily Engstler 😤

WAS – ATL | ION 📺 pic.twitter.com/CT5gmvjcbQ

— WNBA (@WNBA) September 14, 2024

Washington may not have the top-end talent of some playoff-bound teams, but the Mystics certainly have the element of surprise. There is not a lot of tape on the players who are powering Washington’s second-half surge.

(Photo of Caitlin Clark: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)