TikTok debate reveals the risks for investing in China during U.S. election year

The debate over whether Chinese-owned TikTok can operate in the U.S. is back with fervor, revealing more about the risk for Chinese stocks in a U.S. presidential election year. The committee that led the legislation on TikTok that passed the House of Representatives last week has another bill aimed at restricting Chinese biotech companies, among many policy proposals . Such considerations motivated Goldman Sachs analysts to update their model for measuring the level of risk from U.S.-China tensions in Chinese stocks. Their barometer, created in 2020, “has correlated well with the U.S.-China events timeline, and China equity performance,” the analysts said. They said recent events mean they must consider more factors, such as the performance of Chinese exporters to the U.S., artificial intelligence names and nearly 150 Chinese healthcare companies. Goldman’s revised U.S.-China tensions barometer stands at a modest 53 out of 100, indicating a “somewhat benign” outlook for the bilateral relationship. While some factors, such as geopolitics, have improved, others are on the rise. “The risks in ‘Soft Tech’ have moved higher in recent months, in our view likely driven by the market volatility stemming from the proposed BioSecure Act bill and the expanding/intensifying restrictions on AI and other advanced technologies,” the Goldman analysts wrote in a March 14 report. The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party in late January introduced a draft of the ” BioSecure Act ” to the House of Representatives. “Once enacted, the legislation would restrict federally funded medical providers from using foreign adversary biotech companies of concern,” the Committee said in a release, naming a few Chinese entities in particular. It’s not clear how quickly the bill and its Senate version can move through Congress, if at all. The latest TikTok legislation — which effectively bans the app in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent ByteDance sells it — was introduced in the House on March 5 and passed just over a week later. But as the TikTok bill now makes its way to the Senate, many analysts expect its momentum to slow. “A key issue for the Senate is that House bill is specific to TikTok, rather than a larger policy restriction on apps that pose potential national security risks,” Raymond James analysts said in a note. That’s not stopped investors from making plans to buy the popular TikTok app, assuming it comes up for sale. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” that he supports the TikTok legislation and is putting together a group to buy the app . Mnuchin was Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump, who is running for president again this year in November against President Joe Biden. Taking a tough stance on China has become a rare area of bipartisan agreement. The Trump administration increased tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to take similar action on some U.S. products. The Biden administration has restricted Chinese businesses’ ability to access high-end semiconductors, which Beijing has repeatedly asked the U.S. to remove. “The build-up to and the outcomes of the election will be consequential to asset markets globally, US-China relations, and the returns of Chinese equities,” the Goldman analysts said. Investing around it In their updated model of U.S.-China tensions, they also pointed out which Chinese stocks tended to outperform or underperform when their barometer went up. Based on data since 2018, the three mainland China-listed stocks the Goldman analysis found that tend to perform the best when the barometer on tensions goes up are: healthcare company IMEIK Technology, Postal Savings Bank and alcohol company Luzhou Laojiao. In terms of sectors, consumer sectors “tend to outperform when the implied tensions escalate,” the Goldman report said. When the barometer points to de-escalation, capital goods, tech hardware, semiconductors and other cyclicals tend to outperform, the analysts said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.